| CROSSWISE, March 2010 [05/03/10] |
| In mid-January, the financial markets encountered some obstacles. The trigger was the cautious tightening of the monetary policy in China and also the surfacing of the problems with the Greek national debt. All risky assets fell. However, due to the strengthening of the dollar, the return on dollar-based investments will in terms of euro (or DKK) gain somewhat. However, our preferred asset class, high-yielding bonds, has performed decently with a return of 6.2% for EM bonds and 2.3% for corporate bonds. |
 |
| CROSSWISE, March 2010 [05/03/10] |
| In mid-January, the financial markets encountered some obstacles. The trigger was the cautious tightening of the monetary policy in China and also the surfacing of the problems with the Greek national debt. All risky assets fell. However, due to the strengthening of the dollar, the return on dollar-based investments will in terms of euro (or DKK) gain somewhat. However, our preferred asset class, high-yielding bonds, has performed decently with a return of 6.2% for EM bonds and 2.3% for corporate bonds. |
|
| Economic Calendar - 8-12 March 2010 [05/03/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: retail sales, balance of goods and services and business inventories
? Germany: industrial production and exports
? The UK: industrial production
? Japan: machinery orders
? Sweden: industrial production and consumer prices
? Norway: consumer prices
? Switzerland: monetary-policy meeting at the SNB
? China: industrial production, consumer prices and trade balance |
|
| Economic Calendar - 8-12 March 2010 [05/03/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: retail sales, balance of goods and services and business inventories
? Germany: industrial production and exports
? The UK: industrial production
? Japan: machinery orders
? Sweden: industrial production and consumer prices
? Norway: consumer prices
? Switzerland: monetary-policy meeting at the SNB
? China: industrial production, consumer prices and trade balance |
|
| Economic Calendar - 1-5 March 2010 [25/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
* The US: employment, ISM manufacturing and service, personal income and consumption and pending home sales
* The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB and GDP
* Germany: industrial orders
* The UK: monetary-policy meeting at the BoE, PMI and private-sector lending
* Japan: unemployment
* Sweden: GDP
* China: PMI Manufacturing |
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| Economic Calendar - 1-5 March 2010 [25/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
* The US: employment, ISM manufacturing and service, personal income and consumption and pending home sales
* The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB and GDP
* Germany: industrial orders
* The UK: monetary-policy meeting at the BoE, PMI and private-sector lending
* Japan: unemployment
* Sweden: GDP
* China: PMI Manufacturing |
|
| China: Economic Outlook [24/02/10] |
| We raise our growth forecast for this year and maintain the forecast for 2011.
The higher forecasts are due to the fact that growth in the Chinese economy by the end of 2009 was stronger than expected.
For the time being, growth is driven significantly by public stimulus combined with increasing exports due to a recovery of the global economy.
In the course of 2010, we expect the GDP growth pace to decline slightly again due to less public stimulus. |
|
| Test of the euro [19/02/10] |
| Over the past few weeks, speculation has been rife over the debt problems in the Southern European countries and the euro. It ranges from speculation about national bankruptcy in Greece to countries leaving the euro and even the collapse of the currency. In our opinion, none of these scenarios will come to fruition, but there is no doubt that the euro will be thoroughly tested in the next few years. If things come to a head, we assess that the political will to save the euro is very strong. |
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| Economic calendar - 22-26 February 2010 [19/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: consumer confidence, durable goods orders, 1st revision of Q4 GDP, home sales and house prices
? The euro zone: M3 and private-sector lending growth as well as consumer prices
? Germany: Ifo, unemployment and consumer prices
? The UK: 1st revision of Q4 GDP
? Japan: industrial production and consumer prices
? China: PMI Manufacturing (the night before Monday 1 March) |
|
| Economic calendar - 22-26 February 2010 [19/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: consumer confidence, durable goods orders, 1st revision of Q4 GDP, home sales and house prices
? The euro zone: M3 and private-sector lending growth as well as consumer prices
? Germany: Ifo, unemployment and consumer prices
? The UK: 1st revision of Q4 GDP
? Japan: industrial production and consumer prices
? China: PMI Manufacturing (the night before Monday 1 March) |
|
| Economic Calendar - 15-19 February 2010 [12/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
The US: industrial production, housing construction, minutes of Fed meeting, jobless claims, Philly Fed, consumer prices and the NAHB housing market index
The euro zone: PMIs
Germany: PMIs and ZEW business indicator
The UK: consumer prices and labour market report
France: PMIs
Norway: GDP
Sweden: consumer prices
Japan: monetary-policy meeting at the BoJ |
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| Economic Calendar - 15-19 February 2010 [12/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
The US: industrial production, housing construction, minutes of Fed meeting, jobless claims, Philly Fed, consumer prices and the NAHB housing market index
The euro zone: PMIs
Germany: PMIs and ZEW business indicator
The UK: consumer prices and labour market report
France: PMIs
Norway: GDP
Sweden: consumer prices
Japan: monetary-policy meeting at the BoJ |
|
| Economic Calendar - 8-12 February 2010 [04/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: retail sales, trade balance, business inventories.
? The euro zone: GDP.
? Germany: GDP, exports and imports
? The UK: inflation report and industrial production.
? Norway: consumer prices.
? Sweden: monetary-policy meeting at the Riksbank.
? Japan: GDP and machine orders.
? China: exports and imports. |
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| Economic Calendar - 8-12 February 2010 [04/02/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: retail sales, trade balance, business inventories.
? The euro zone: GDP.
? Germany: GDP, exports and imports
? The UK: inflation report and industrial production.
? Norway: consumer prices.
? Sweden: monetary-policy meeting at the Riksbank.
? Japan: GDP and machine orders.
? China: exports and imports. |
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| Economic Calendar - 1-5 February 2010 [29/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: employment, ISM Manufacturing and Service, pending home sales, productivity and vehicle sales
? The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB
? Germany: industrial orders and production
? The UK: monetary-policy meeting at the Bank of England and PMI Service
? Norway: monetary-policy meeting at Norges Bank |
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| Economic Calendar - 1-5 February 2010 [29/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: employment, ISM Manufacturing and Service, pending home sales, productivity and vehicle sales
? The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB
? Germany: industrial orders and production
? The UK: monetary-policy meeting at the Bank of England and PMI Service
? Norway: monetary-policy meeting at Norges Bank |
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| Economic Calendar - 25-29 January 2010 [22/01/10] |
| * The US: GDP, FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, existing home sales, new durable goods orders, labour costs, house prices and Chicago PMI
* The euro zone: M3 and private sector lending growth, unemployment and consumer prices
* Germany: Ifo, unemployment and consumer prices
* The UK: GDP
* Japan: monetary-policy meeting at the Bank of Japan, industrial production, unemployment and consumer prices
* China: PMI manufacturing, HSBC |
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| Economic Calendar - 25-29 January 2010 [22/01/10] |
| * The US: GDP, FOMC meeting, consumer confidence, existing home sales, new durable goods orders, labour costs, house prices and Chicago PMI
* The euro zone: M3 and private sector lending growth, unemployment and consumer prices
* Germany: Ifo, unemployment and consumer prices
* The UK: GDP
* Japan: monetary-policy meeting at the Bank of Japan, industrial production, unemployment and consumer prices
* China: PMI manufacturing, HSBC |
|
| Economic Calendar - 18-22 January 2010 [15/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: Housing starts, NAHB Housing Market Index and Philly Fed.
? The euro zone: PMI Manufacturing and service
? Germany: ZEW indicator
? The UK: Consumer prices and unemployment
? China: GDP, industrial production and consumer prices |
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| Economic Calendar - 18-22 January 2010 [15/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: Housing starts, NAHB Housing Market Index and Philly Fed.
? The euro zone: PMI Manufacturing and service
? Germany: ZEW indicator
? The UK: Consumer prices and unemployment
? China: GDP, industrial production and consumer prices |
|
| China: Solid progress in the housing market [11/01/10] |
| In the course of 2009, the Chinese housing market started to flourish again after slowing down in 2008. This is reflected in strong construction growth and increasing growth in house prices. The fundamental and structural conditions in China still indicate progress in the housing market in 2010. However, given political ini-tiatives, progress will be less explosive. |
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| Crosswise, January 2010 [08/01/10] |
| High-yielding bonds in focus.
Our investment process still indicates that corporate bonds will also in 2010 yield the best risk-adjusted return. In addition, the probability of a quick return to potential growth has increased in the course of 2009 ? which also points to an increase of the risk in the portfolio.
Hence, we decided to increase the risk in the portfolio by increasing the share of high-yielding bonds to the detriment of traditional bonds. |
|
| Crosswise, January 2010 [08/01/10] |
| High-yielding bonds in focus.
Our investment process still indicates that corporate bonds will also in 2010 yield the best risk-adjusted return. In addition, the probability of a quick return to potential growth has increased in the course of 2009 ? which also points to an increase of the risk in the portfolio.
Hence, we decided to increase the risk in the portfolio by increasing the share of high-yielding bonds to the detriment of traditional bonds. |
|
| Economic Calendar - 11-15 January 2010 [07/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: industrial production, retail sales, consumer prices, balance on goods and services, the Fed?s Beige Book and business inventories
? Germany: GDP
? The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB and consumer prices
? The UK: production in the manufacturing industry
? Japan: machinery orders
? Sweden: consumer prices
? Norway: consumer prices
? China: exports and imports |
|
| Economic Calendar - 11-15 January 2010 [07/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: industrial production, retail sales, consumer prices, balance on goods and services, the Fed?s Beige Book and business inventories
? Germany: GDP
? The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB and consumer prices
? The UK: production in the manufacturing industry
? Japan: machinery orders
? Sweden: consumer prices
? Norway: consumer prices
? China: exports and imports |
|
| Economic Outlook - the UK [07/01/10] |
| The UK did not manage in Q3 to put the deep recession behind it. But the upturn is just around the corner, and we expect positive growth in Q4. But there are still hangovers after the vehement plunge, and we expect the upturn to be moderate. We expect the Bank of England to maintain the relaxed monetary policy until Q3 2010. |
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| Economic Outlook - Euro zone [06/01/10] |
| The economy is no longer in the doldrums. In the third quarter, growth entered positive territory again following five quarters of negative growth. The economic stimulus initiatives from the fiscal and monetary policy are reflected and together with exports, they will be very important in relation to renewed growth and growth in 2010. For 2011, we expect private consumption and corporate investment to become the growth engines to an increasing extent. |
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| Economic Calendar - 4-8 January 2010 [04/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: the job report, ISM Manufacturing, pending home sales, ISM Service and car sales.
? Germany: industrial production and new orders
? The UK: monetary-policy meeting.
? China: PMI manufacturing, HSBC |
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| Economic Calendar - 4-8 January 2010 [04/01/10] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: the job report, ISM Manufacturing, pending home sales, ISM Service and car sales.
? Germany: industrial production and new orders
? The UK: monetary-policy meeting.
? China: PMI manufacturing, HSBC |
|
| Economic Outlook - Norway [28/12/09] |
| The rather mild recession has been replaced by an upturn. Consumers show the way, while the manufacturing industry is still struggling to regain a foothold. The upturn is attributable to the expansive monetary and fiscal policy, but the recovery of the global economy is also decisive.
For 2009 we expect negative growth of 1.2% while GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2010 and 2011.
In October Norges Bank raised interest rates to 1.5%, and we expect further hikes, taking the key rate to 2.75% by the end of 2010. |
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| Economic Outlook - Germany [28/12/09] |
| Following the serious economic setback in late 2008 and early 2009, the economy is recovering again. |
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| Economic Outlook - Sweden [28/12/09] |
| Following the deep recession, the upturn has set in now. The upturn is driven by an expansive economic policy, but consumers have also grown increasingly optimistic, and the exports prospects are improving.
For 2009 as a whole, we expect negative growth of 4.5% while GDP will grow by just above 2% in both 2010 and 2011.
The inflationary pressure is moderate, and we do not expect interest-rate hikes until the third quarter of 2010. |
|
| Economic Calendar - 28 Dec - 1 Jan 2009 [22/12/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: house prices from CaseShiller and consumer confidence
? The euro zone: M3 and lending growth in the private sector
? Japan: Industrial production
? China: PMI manufacturing |
|
| Economic Calendar - 28 Dec - 1 Jan 2009 [22/12/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: house prices from CaseShiller and consumer confidence
? The euro zone: M3 and lending growth in the private sector
? Japan: Industrial production
? China: PMI manufacturing |
|
| Economic Calendar - 21-25 December 2009 [17/12/09] |
| Important events of the week:
* The US: home sales, personal income and spending, jobless claims, new durable goods orders and home prices
* Japan: unemployment, consumer prices and industrial production (the night before Monday 28 December) |
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| Economic Calendar - 21-25 December 2009 [17/12/09] |
| Important events of the week:
* The US: home sales, personal income and spending, jobless claims, new durable goods orders and home prices
* Japan: unemployment, consumer prices and industrial production (the night before Monday 28 December) |
|
| Greece - A Greek tragedy? [14/12/09] |
| A number of credit-rating agencies have presented a more negative view on Greek, and therefore the Greek problems with poor public finances are back into the limelight. The slowdown and the financial crisis have put extra pressure on the already very poor public finances, and it has been questioned whether Greece will be able to service its debt obligations. We assess that the other euro-zone countries will offer economic support in such a case, if Greece is unable to find a sustainable solution itself. |
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| Economic Calendar - 14-18 December 2009 [10/12/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: industrial production, housing construction, FOMC meeting, housing prices, Philly Fed and consumer prices
? The euro zone: PMI and consumer prices
? Japan: Tankan report and monetary-policy meeting at the Bank of Japan
? Germany: IFO and ZEW
? The UK: unemployment and consumer prices
? Sweden: monetary-policy meeting at the Riksbank
? Norway: monetary-policy meeting at Norges Bank |
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| Economic Calendar - 14-18 December 2009 [10/12/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: industrial production, housing construction, FOMC meeting, housing prices, Philly Fed and consumer prices
? The euro zone: PMI and consumer prices
? Japan: Tankan report and monetary-policy meeting at the Bank of Japan
? Germany: IFO and ZEW
? The UK: unemployment and consumer prices
? Sweden: monetary-policy meeting at the Riksbank
? Norway: monetary-policy meeting at Norges Bank |
|
| Economic Calendar - 7-11 December 2009 [04/12/09] |
| Important events next week:
? The US: retail prices, balance on goods and services, consumer credits and business stocks
? The UK: industrial prod. and MP meeting at the Bank of England
? Germany: industrial orders, industrial prod. and trade balance
? Sweden: industrial prod. and consumer prices
? Japan: Tankan, GDP and machinery orders
? Norway: industrial prod. and consumer prices
? Switzerland: MP meeting at the SNB
? China: industrial prod., exports, imports and consumer prices |
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| Economic Calendar - 7-11 December 2009 [04/12/09] |
| Important events next week:
? The US: retail prices, balance on goods and services, consumer credits and business stocks
? The UK: industrial prod. and MP meeting at the Bank of England
? Germany: industrial orders, industrial prod. and trade balance
? Sweden: industrial prod. and consumer prices
? Japan: Tankan, GDP and machinery orders
? Norway: industrial prod. and consumer prices
? Switzerland: MP meeting at the SNB
? China: industrial prod., exports, imports and consumer prices |
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| Global Economy - After dawn [30/11/09] |
| The darkest hour is just before the dawn, but the sun has risen and the day is brightening. The global economy is getting a firm foothold, and economic growth is quite robust at present. We expect this situation to prevail for some time, after which growth is likely to fall in the course of 2010 and 2011 to a level a little below normal. We do not expect the large central banks to be keen to raise interest rates. |
|
| Economic Calendar - 30 Nov - 4 Dec 2009 [26/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: employment, ISM manufacturing and service, Bernanke?s testimony before the Senate, car sales, the Fed?s Beige Book and pending home sales
? The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB, consumer prices and unemployment
? Japan: industrial production
? Germany: unemployment
? The UK: PMIs and private lending
? Switzerland: GDP
? China: PMI manufacturing |
|
| Economic Calendar - 30 Nov - 4 Dec 2009 [26/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: employment, ISM manufacturing and service, Bernanke?s testimony before the Senate, car sales, the Fed?s Beige Book and pending home sales
? The euro zone: monetary-policy meeting at the ECB, consumer prices and unemployment
? Japan: industrial production
? Germany: unemployment
? The UK: PMIs and private lending
? Switzerland: GDP
? China: PMI manufacturing |
|
| Economic Calendar - 23-27 November 2009 [19/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
The US: consumer confidence, existing home sales, new durable goods orders, minutes of FOMC meeting, GDP, new home sales, personal income and housing prices
Japan: industrial production, unemployment and consumer prices
The euro zone: PMI manufacturing, PMI service and private sector lending growth
Germany: Ifo
Norway: GDP
Sweden: GDP |
|
| Economic Calendar - 23-27 November 2009 [19/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
The US: consumer confidence, existing home sales, new durable goods orders, minutes of FOMC meeting, GDP, new home sales, personal income and housing prices
Japan: industrial production, unemployment and consumer prices
The euro zone: PMI manufacturing, PMI service and private sector lending growth
Germany: Ifo
Norway: GDP
Sweden: GDP |
|
| Economic Calendar - 16-20 November 2009 [13/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
The US: retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, business inventories, sentiment indicator of the construction companies, consumer prices, Philly Fed and jobless claims
Japan: monetary-policy meeting at the BoJ
The euro zone: consumer prices
The UK: consumer prices |
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| Economic Calendar - 16-20 November 2009 [13/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
The US: retail sales, industrial production, housing starts, business inventories, sentiment indicator of the construction companies, consumer prices, Philly Fed and jobless claims
Japan: monetary-policy meeting at the BoJ
The euro zone: consumer prices
The UK: consumer prices |
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| Economic Calendar - 9-13 November 2009 [06/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: balance on goods and services
? Japan: GDP and machinery orders
? The euro zone: GDP and consumer prices
? Germany: industrial production, exports and ZEW
? The UK: inflation report from the Bank of England
? Sweden: consumer prices
? Norway: consumer prices
? China: industrial production and exports |
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| Economic Calendar - 9-13 November 2009 [06/11/09] |
| Important events of the week:
? The US: balance on goods and services
? Japan: GDP and machinery orders
? The euro zone: GDP and consumer prices
? Germany: industrial production, exports and ZEW
? The UK: inflation report from the Bank of England
? Sweden: consumer prices
? Norway: consumer prices
? China: industrial production and exports |
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