Jyske Bank - Macro Economy

Macro Economy

Jyske Bank publishes a number of macro-economic analyses at regular intervals throughout the year. These analyses aim to give a broad overview of various economic areas of interest. See the most recent analyses here.

	Economic Calendar May 21 - May 28 [16/05/12]
	Most important events of the week: - US: Housing Sales and Durable Goods Orders - Euro Zone: Informal EU Summit and preliminary PMIs - Germany: Ifo - Great Britain: Consumer Prices - China: PMI manufacturing - Japan: Monetary Policy meeting in BoJ

	Economic Calendar May 14 - May 21 [11/05/12]
	Most important events of the week: - US: Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Minutes of Fed?s meeting - Euro Zone: GDP, Euro Group meeting, Hollande and Merkel meets in Berlin - Germany: ZEW

	The Spanish disease [07/05/12]
	Spain is facing stormy weather in the financial markets due to concerns about the country?s ability to handle the great challenges. We do not consider the debt situation untenable but we find that it is a confidence crisis with the banking sector as the crucial element. However, a confidence crisis should also be taken very seriously, as rising yields stand the risk of becoming self-fulfilling, leading to an uncontrollable debt increase.

	Economic Calender May 7 - May 11 [02/05/12]
	Most important events of the week: - US: Trade Balance and Consumer Credit - Germany: Industrial Production and Foreign Trade - Great Britain: Monetary policy meeting at Bank of England - China: Consumer Prices, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Export and Imports - Norway: Monetary policy meeting at Norges Bank

	Economic Calender 30 Apr - 4 May [26/04/12]
	Most important events of the week: -US: Non-farm payrolls, ISM manufacturing and Service og total vehicle sale -Eurozone: Monetary Policy meeting at ECB and private lending -France: Second round of the presidential election -Greece: Parliamentary election -China: PMI?s

	Economic Calendar Apr 23 - Apr 27 [20/04/12]
	Important Events during the Week: -US: GDP, Monetary Policy meeting at Fed and Consumer Confidence -Euro zone: ECB?s Lending Survey and PMI?s -UK: GDP -Japan: Monetary Policy meeting at Bank of Japan

	China: housing market is cracking in the joints [19/04/12]
	We do not assess that the Chinese housing market is heading for at collapse but there are prospects of price declines and moderate construction activity in 2012. There is major political focus on lowering house prices, but also on ensuring a soft landing of the housing market. It is an exceedingly difficult task with a considerable risk of failure. Accordingly, there is a risk of steep declines in house prices and major slowdown in construction activity. This will curb growth and hurt the public finances.

	The US: is the economy suffering from spring fatigue again? [19/04/12]
	In March, employment was lower than expected and jobless claims rose last week. Both aspects contributed to rising concern about yet another attack of spring fatigue in the economy - like the one we have seen in the past two years. We believe, however, that economic growth will continue at a rather reasonable pace in the coming quarters.

	China: trend towards soft landing of the economy [18/04/12]
	The Chinese GDP rose by 8.1% y/y in Q1 2012, which was below the expected 8.4%. But the economy is still heading against a soft landing. We anticipate that economic growth will be lifted in the coming quarters due to the more relaxed monetary policy and growth-supporting fiscal policy. For the full year, we still expect to see growth at 8.4%, but with a risk of a small downgrade.

	Economic Calendar Apr 16 - Apr 22 [13/04/12]
	Most important events of the Week: -Global: G20 meeting, IMF?s WEO and IMF and World Bank Meeting -US: Retailsales, Industrial Production and Housing Starts -Eurozone: Consumer Prices and first round of the french Presidential election -Germany Ifo- and Zew indicator -Sweden Monetary Policy Meeting at Riksbanken -China: PMI Manufacturing, priliminary

	Economic Calender Apr 9 - Apr 13 [04/04/12]
	Important Events during the Week - US: Consumer Prices, Fed?s Beige Book and Trade Balance - Germany: Exports and imports - China: GDP

	Economic Calendar Apr 2 - Apr 6 [29/03/12]
	Most important events during the week: US: Nonfarm payrolls, ISM Manufacturing and ISM Service Eurozone: Monetary Policy Meeting at ECB Germany: Industrial Production UK: Monetary Policy Meeting at BoE Japan: Tankan Index China: Trade Balance

	Portugal: please send more money [27/03/12]
	It is feared that Portugal will be the new Greece. We assess that Portugal needs a new rescue package to ”buy time” to implement the necessary reforms. Portugal has complied with the demands of the first package, and we expect that a new rescue package is ready this summer, at the latest. The major question is whether a new rescue package will also contain a debt restructuring. We do not believe so. But the problems are so serious that a debt restructuring at a later point is not unlikely.

	Turkey: excitement up to monetary-policy meeting [22/03/12]
	The Turkish central bank (CBRT) has once again put the spotlight on itself prior to the monetary-policy meeting on 27 March. The reason for this is that the CBRT cut its day-to-day lending rate by 100 basis points at the previous monetary-policy meeting. This has sparked speculations about the monetary policy being relaxed even further. The CBRT?s move at the monetary policy meeting and its signals on the future monetary policy may have a major effect on interest rates and the currency in the coming months.

	Economic Calendar Mar 26 - Mar 31 [21/03/12]
	Important Events during the Week - USA: Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods orders and Consumption - Eurozone: Monet Supply & Loans to private and Ecofin Meeting - Germany: Ifo and Unemployment - China: PMI Manufacturing - Japan: Tankan

	Global economy: Small but uncertain signs of spring [19/03/12]
	The global economy has undergone some improvement in recent months. We have seen a moderate turn in the global sentiment indicators, while some of the risk factors have become slightly less imminent. However, it cannot be ruled out that these risks may come into play again. On the other hand, new problems may emerge in the form of rising oil prices and falling house prices in China and the US. On the whole, we still expect relatively moderate growth in the global economy.

	Brazil: clear signals from the central bank [19/03/12]
	In the minutes from the monetary-policy meeting the Brazilian central bank took the market by surprise when it sent a comparatively clear signal that it intended to cut its interest rate to 9% from 9.75% and maintain the rate at this level. The Brazilian economy slowed down considerably in H2 2011. But recent economic indicators pointed to an economy gaining momentum. In addition, the improvement in the global economy combined with fiscal and monetary-policy relaxation will support economic growth in 2012.

	Economic Calendar Mar 19 - Mar 23 [15/03/12]
	Most important events during the week: US: Housing Starts, Existing Homes Sales and Jobless Claims Eurozone: PMI?s UK: Consumer Prices China: PMI Manufacturing

	China: slowdown in economic growth in Q1 [15/03/12]
	This year?s first economic indicators from China confirm the slowdown in economic growth that we saw at end-2011. The government?s tightening in the housing market, slower global economic growth, uncertainty about the economy and the political line have put a damper on economic growth. We anticipate that Q1 will be the weakest quarter of the year, and for the full year we anticipate growth at 8.4%.

	Economic Calendar Mar 12 - Mar 16 [08/03/12]
	Most important events during the week: -US: Monetary Policy meeting at Fed, Retail Sales, Industrial Production -Eurozone: Meeting in the Eurogroup, Consumer Prices -Germany: Zew indicator -Japan: Monetary Policy meeting at BoJ

	EM of increasing importance for global investors [05/03/12]
	According to the IMF, there are many good reasons why emerging markets will account for a greater proportion of the global investor?s portfolio in the coming years. The most important reason is that investors seek a higher degree of diversification and flock to countries with high growth potential. Emerging markets are generally underrepresented in the global portfolios and the growth potential is much higher than in the developed economies.

	Economic Calendar 5 - 9 Mar [01/03/12]
	Important Events during the Week -US: Non-farm payrolls and ISM service -Euroland: Monetary Policy Meeting at ECB -United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Meeting at BoE -Germany: Industrial Production -China: Consumer Prices, Exports/Imports and Industrial Production

	Economic Calender Feb 27 - Mar 2 [24/02/12]
	Important Events during the Week - US: ISM Maufacturing, Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods Orders, Fed?s Beige Book - Eurozone: EU Summit, Money Supply & Loans to private and Consumer Prices - Sweden: GDP - China: PMI?s

	Economic Calendar Feb 20 - Feb 24 [16/02/12]
	Important Events during the Week -US: Homes Sales -Eurozone: Meeting in the Eurogroup, PMI?s -Germany: Ifo -China: PMI manufacturing

	Greece is racing against time - the next steps [15/02/12]
	Greece is racing against time and will face a string of crucial events over the coming days/weeks. We still believe that Greece will sign an agreement and thus avoid a threatening national bankruptcy on 20 March, but there are considerable risks. Although Greece gets off initially, it will still face major challenges in future.

	Danish Economy - Economic slowdown in an uncertain time [13/02/12]
	The Danish economy is in a period of subdued economic development. We find it most likely that the economy will gradually improve over the coming years. But especially in 2012, the incentive to buy will probably be affected by the new declines in house prices. However, the low interest rates will be helpful and there is basis for a confidence boost which over time may dampen the high propensity to save.

	Economic Calendar Feb 13 - Feb 17 [09/02/12]
	Important events of the week: -US: Industrialproduction, Retailsales and Minutes from Fed meeting -Eurozone: GDP -UK: Forbrugerpriser -Germany: Zew indicator -Sweden: Monetary policy meeting at Riksbanken -Norway: GDP -Japan: GDP and Monetary Policy meeting at BoJ

	Economic Calendar Feb 6 - Feb 10 [02/02/12]
	Important Events during the Week: -US: Trade Balance -Eurozone: Monetary meeting at ECB -United Kingdom: Monetary meeting at Bank of England -Germany: Industrial Production and Exports/Imports -Japan: GDP -China: Consumer Prices and Export/Import

	The sore spots [27/01/12]
	We have taken a closer look at the Danish economy?s most sore spots: the housing market, the heavy debts of households, the financial sector and the labour market.

	Economic Calendar Jan 30 - Feb 3 [27/01/12]
	Important events of the week: -US: Employment, Consumer Confidence, , ISM Manufacturing, ISM Service, CaseShiller, Houseprices, Vehichle Sales -Eurozone: EU Summit, EU?s Quarterly lendingsurvey -Germany: Unemployment -China: PMIs

	Economic Calendar JAN 23 - JAN 27 [19/01/12]
	Important events of the week: - USA: Monetary Policy Meeting at Fed, GDP and Durable Goods Orders - Euro Zone: PMI?s, Meeting at the Euro Group, M3 and Loans to Private - Germany: Ifo - Great Britain: GDP

	China: lowest growth for almost 10 years [18/01/12]
	Chinese GDP was up by 8.9% (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter of 2011. This is the lowest growth rate since the second quarter of 2009. Full 2011 saw an increase of 9.2%. We have to go back all the way to 2002 to find a lower growth rate. This is an indication that Chinese growth has slowed down and it should be seen in the light of an average growth rate of 10.6% in China over the past 10 years. The slowdown was politically motivated but has been reinforced by weaker global growth.

	Economic Calender Jan 16 - Jan 20 [16/01/12]
	Important events of the week: - US: Industrial Production, Consumer Prices, Housing Starts and Sales, and Philly Fed - Eurozone: Consumer Prices - China: GDP and PMI

	Euro zone: Problems in the money market [12/01/12]
	The European money market is not functioning efficiently due to the debt crisis and doubts about the strength of the banks. The ECB is trying to alleviate the problem through massive injections of liquidity, and many banks depend on liquidity from the ECB. The money market is important to the financial system and the economy, and indeed, for that very reason, the ECB purchases government bonds from the crisis-ridden countries. Also, the problems give rise to concerns about a credit crunch.

	Economic Calendar Jan 9 - Jan 13 [06/01/12]
	Important events of the week: -US: Retailsales, Trade balance and Beige Book -Eurozone: Monetary meeting at ECD, German/French summit -Germany: Industrial Production and Export/Import -Great Britain: Monetary meeting at BoE

	2012 Outlook [27/12/11]
	2012 Outlook

	Economic Calendar - Dec 26-Jan 6 [22/12/11]
	Important events of the weeks: - US: Employment, ISM Manufacturing and Service, Minutes from Monetary Policy Meeting, Consumer Confidence and Car Sales - Euro Zone: Consumer Prices - China: PMI Manufacturing (HSBC and NBS)

	Economic Calender Dec 19 - Dec 23 [16/12/11]
	Important events of the week: - US: Durable Goods Orders, Housing Sales and Housing Construction - Germany: Ifo - Japan: Rate announcement - Sweden: Rate announcement

	EU summit: one step forward on a long and bumpy road [14/12/11]
	The outcome of the EU summit was a fiscal compact to ensure that future crises are prevented as well as a stronger rescue system to contain the current crisis. It is an important step in the right direction, but it is still an open question whether the safety net under the troubled countries is sufficient. Also, details are few and the implementation of the new legislation is uncertain. There is still a long way to the final solution to the debt crisis and uncertainty will therefore still prevail.

	Global economy: debt disease troubles global economy [13/12/11]
	Global economic growth is slowing and there is uncertainty about the growth outlook. The euro zone debt crisis troubles the global economy. It is up to European politicians and the ECB to solve the crisis. We still expect a political solution and that a euro collapse is avoided. But there are prospects of a turbulent period. In terms of growth the US and EM seems to be in better shape than the euro zone which is on the verge of a recession. We expect the ECB to cut rates to the record-low 0.5% in 2012.

	Economic Calendar Dec 12 - Dec 16 [09/12/11]
	Important events of the week: - US: Retail sales, rate announcement, industrial production, Philly Fed and consumer prices - Euro Zone: PMI composite, manufacturing and service, consumer prices and Zew - Great Britain: Consumer prices - Schweiz: Rate announcement - China: PMI manufacturing (HSBC) - Japan: Tankan manufacturing - Norway: Rate announcement

	Economic Calender Dec 5 - Dec 9 [01/12/11]
	Important events of the week: - US: ISM service and Trade Balance - Eurozone: Monetary Meeting at ECB and EU summit - United Kingdom: Industrial Production, Exports and Imports - Germany: Monetary Meeting at BoE - China: Consumer Prices, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Exports and Imports

	European debt crisis - what can the ECB do? [25/11/11]
	Debt crisis keeps spreading, jeopardising financial stability in the entire euro zone. Therefore, ECB must interfere more actively. ECB measures may include major purchases of government bonds and announcement of an interest-rate ceiling. But the precondition is that politicians deliver closer integration and the first step can be taken at the EU summit on 9 Dec. But not until in the longer term may treaty changes be a reality and joint eurobonds (proposed by the Commission) are still long in coming.

	Economic Calender Nov 28 - Dec 2 [24/11/11]
	Important events of the week: - US: Employment, ISM, Consumer Confidence, Vehicle sales and Residential sales - Eurozone: Meeting of the Euro group and Consumer Prices - United Kingdom: PMI manuufacturing - Germany: Unemployment - China: PMIs

	Economic Calender 21-25 November [21/11/11]
	Important events of the week: - US: Deadline for the Super Committee, Durable Goods Orders, Personal income and consumption - Eurozone: PMI - United Kingdom: Consumer Prices - Germany: Ifo - Japan: PMI manufacturing

	Italien: Mounting pressure - on Italy and ECB [11/11/11]
	The pressure on Italy is mounting, and even if the politicians now implement the long-awaited reforms, it will be difficult for Italy by itself to restore confidence. Therefore help from abroad may very well be needed, and the ball is now very much in the ECB?s court.

	Brazil: on the right course but challenges ahead [11/11/11]
	According to the OECD, Brazil has since the 1990s seen robust economic growth with widespread financial stability. But the future brings challenges in the form of an ageing population, an overvalued currency and historically low unemployment which is a risk factor for inflation. The solution must come from continued robust macroeconomic control, structural reforms of the financial sector and reforms which aim to increase savings in society.

	Economic Calender 14-18 November [10/11/11]
	Important events of the week - US: Detail Sales, Industrial Production and Consumer Prices - Eurozone: GDP and Consumer Prices - United Kingdom: Consumer Prices - Germany: GDP and ZEW - Japan: GDP and Monetary Meeting at BoJ

	Economic Calender 7-11 November [03/11/11]
	Important events of the week: - US: Trade Balance - Eurozone: Meeting of the Eurogroup - United Kingdom: Monetary Meeting at BoE - Germany: Industrial Produkction, exports and imports - China: Consumer prices, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Exports and Imports - Japan: GDP

	EU on track ? but at a snail?s pace [27/10/11]
	The framework of the EU?s new rescue package is now in place. And the EU is definitely on track, although the measures are at a snail?s pace.