Jyske Bank - FX

FX - Spot On

FX - Spot On is a monthly publication which focuses on the Foreign Exchange market. We explain our view of the financial markets in general and present analyses of selected currencies

	FX - Spot on, Maj 2012 [10/05/12]
	Will the fixed-income markets accept less tightening for the benefit of growth reforms and initiatives if Hollande is elected president and has his own way vis-à-vis Merkel? We doubt it. Spring fatigue in the US seems to materialise again. More QE? We do not think so. Sterling has gone it alone in April and appreciated considerably. In our view, the potential is limited from the current level and we are concerned about the downside. We anticipate a stronger US dollar and yen. The Norwegian krone and

	FX - Spot ON, April 2012 [16/04/12]
	The growth divergence between the US and Europe has been steadily increasing. We expect that this trend will continue. The debt crisis has lost its news appeal but the markets are still jittery. Spain has come partly into focus. EM have lost their breath. Important levels have been breached in a number of cross rates ? is more in store? We expect so. We expect that USD, JPY and GBP will appreciate (primarily on a 6M horizon). EM will not regain positive momentum until at the end of H2 2012.

	FX - Spot On, Marts 2012 [12/03/12]
	Time for a correction? We believe so The ECB?s 2nd 3-year liquidity allotments has been discounted in an euphoric market High oil prices reduce the growth potential and constitute a noticeable risk for the price of risky assets. The high oil prices lift inflation and reduce the probability of interest-rate cuts from ECB Stronger economic indicators in US reduce probability of QE3 EM currencies have benefited from the global relaxed monetary policy. We anticipate a correction in spring/summer

	FX - Spot On, Februar 2012 [06/02/12]
	Will we see a Greek ?exit? or a poor stop-gap solution? Did the Fed just announce QE3? Keep a close eye on the ECB?s 3-year LTRO at end-February (the ECB?s Draghi anticipates a substantial demand). The relaxed monetary-policy tone in the ECB, the Fed etc. is positive news for equities, commodities and other risky assets and currencies. *EM currencies are in for a volatile period of time. Slower global economic growth combined with a relaxed global monetary policy is pulling in opposite directions.

	FX - Spot On, Januar 2012 [13/01/12]
	* 2012: ”The crucial moment” for a squeezed euro? * We anticipate a weak euro throughout 2012 ? no collapse. Especially H1 2012 will be a challenge for the single currency. * USD will appreciate over 2012. * We see rising potential in USD-related EM currencies. ?Timing is everything”.